State of Crypto - Wrapping up Token2049 & Solana Breakpoint

Vibes, Chains, VC's, Founders, Projects, Winners vs Losers

Sep 23, 2024

BACKGROUND

I spend hours every week reading, researching, and chatting with some of the brightest founders and investors in the game. This is my attempt to give you a VERY REAL snapshot of what's happening in crypto, as witnessed firsthand at Token 2049 and Solana's Breakpoint.

I've been around since 2013, so trust me when I tell you how things really stand today. Most of my meetings were one-on-one, but I did take a trip down the rabbit hole, navigating the maze of booths at Token 2049, like Alice in Wonderland.

First off, huge applause to Singapore, Marina Bay Sands, and the Token 2049 organizers—absolutely seamless. Only Singapore could pull off such a polished event in the middle of their busiest week, with F1 weekend right around the corner.

Without further ado, let's break down the vibes, the chains, the projects, the founders, the VCs, the narratives, and, of course, the winners and losers. Buckle up... we're diving in!

GENERAL VIBES

For the past decade, we’ve been selling the dream that crypto will revolutionize the world, solving real-world problems and welcoming a massive influx of Web2 users into this bold new world. Let’s be honest, though— crypto hasn’t quite lived up to that promise. Instead, we’ve collectively morphed into thrill-seeking degenerates, hopping from one Ponzi scheme to another like a squirrel on espresso.

A perfect example of this dilution is the 500+ side events at Token 2049. Projects have been overfunded to the point where marketing budgets are bigger than actual revenues (if any), with flashy booths and five-star venues masking the reality of minimal user adoption. VCs, who once threw billions at anything with a whitepaper, are now hitting pause. The good news? Only serious projects are getting funded now. The bad news? It’s taken this long to get here.

As a result, we’re seeing fragmentation with over 100 L1/L2’s pushing for attention to same crypto audience — less engagement & fewer meaningful conversations. We’ve moved from Solana to Ethereum memes, then Base, and now Justin Sun playing Icarus, flying dangerously close to the sun. It’s great for short-term drama, but where’s the long-term vision? Where’s the mass adoption we’ve been promised? Jumping from one meme to another and one chain to another is not real business.

Over the years, we’ve hopped from ICO hype to DeFi yield farming, from NFT frenzy to GameFi distribution ponzis, PoS staking, restaking schemes to now Bitcoin restaking (seriously?), and eventually to a points-and-airdrops pyramid. What’s the next gimmick? The people I talk to hang out with, are seriously concerned about where this industry is headed. There’s a lot happening, but very little to show for it.

VCs are frustrated that they didn’t anticipate the memecoin mania, and they can’t touch that sector with regulated funds. Founders are grumbling because VCs are no longer funding every weed in the garden, hoping one turns into a rose. Degens are exhausted hopping from one narrative to another and Farmers are frustrated as airdrops and points didn’t bring in the free riches (Grass, Eigen, Blast etc). The only people smiling are those in trading (CEX, DEX, perps), gambling (Rollbit, Shuffle, Polymarket, memecoins), and the infrastructure supporting it all. And that is evident with F1 sponsorships, mega booths and millions in marketing budget.

Meanwhile, AI and equities are stealing the spotlight with NVIDIA delivering crypto like returns. Better returns in fact, lesser risk, more regulated with easy UI/UX via Fiat on ramp. Smart TradFi money is raking in returns from stocks with much less risk (and yes, I know stocks have risk, but come on—look at the crypto landscape). Why even bother with crypto when you can just buy options on MSTR or COIN for exposure?

OK, OK, it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s still some light at the end of the tunnel. There are brilliant founders who continue to get funding, and real-world use cases with actual revenue potential are starting to emerge. VCs are becoming more selective, thank goodness, and we’re seeing more corporate players like Sony, global banks & financial firms tiptoeing into the space. But let’s be clear—this is not the mass adoption that we were promised.

So where is the opportunity. I explore below but I believe the answer lies in the eye of the token beholder. Where you sit, what game you are playing, what gang are you a part of and what are you circumstances? There are two types of games that have emerged in crypto:

Short term narrative driven - quick in-and-out - nothing wrong with it but mostly played by degens, short term founders, VC’s and KoLs catching falling knives in the hope to make it rich quick
Long term mega VC funded games played by large funds backing top devs and founders in hope of making mega returns from listings and a potential Solana or infrastructure of the future.

So, while the mood at these events might feel a bit like a rainy parade, there are still pockets of brilliance—founders, projects, and VCs that could dazzle us in the coming years. I’ve been down this crypto rabbit hole for 11 years, and I’m sticking around, but let me be clear: if Bitcoin hits $100K, we’ll all be back to Ponzi land faster than you can say "decentralized." No one will care about fundamentals—until the market serves a wake-up call, and by then, it'll be too late.

Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish, Stay Hedged, Always
- Sankalp Shangari, Hashtalk :)

THE CRYPTO AUDIENCE

1. The Crypto Retail Degens - (65%)

These newcomers are like enthusiastic puppies chasing after every shiny object, primarily here to catch the next Bonk, WIF, or Poppet and “hopefully” make a quick exit with their winnings. Their characteristics include:

Hopeful Speculators: They believe they can get rich overnight, with short-term rotations from one memecoin to another, much like a child jumping from one candy to the next at a carnival.
Freebie Enthusiasts: These folks are primarily interested in the swag—booth giveaways, parties, and the countless side events that promise free drinks and snacks.
Short-Term Thinkers: With a focus on immediate gains, they often overlook the bigger picture and the complex game playing out behind the scenes.
Project Builders: Some are even trying to launch their projects, often funded by like-minded, short-term VCs. However, most of these founders struggle to secure backing.

2. The “Smart” Devs and VCs (25%)

This group is the slick, self-styled elite, aiming to emulate the likes of Vitalik, Anatoly, or Raj, all while peddling their dreams to VCs who have a fiduciary duty to fund them. Their strategies include:

Funding First: They prioritize securing funding for the next 2-3 years, with elaborate plans to generate buzz through collaborations with KoL’s and flashy announcements.
Token Hedging: They often sell a large chunk of treasury to fund more operations and hedge their tokens upon listing, planning to sell them gradually while letting the price sink once they’ve cashed out.
Leaving Others Holding the Bag: If a bear market hits, it’s VCs and retail investors left holding the empty bag, while these founders enjoy plush salaries and business-class travel.
Facade of Long-Term Vision: They masquerade as champions of change until the tokens are launched, at which point their true intentions become evident—think Blast and Friend.tech before they jump to the next Ponzi scheme. There are 100’s of such examples.

3. The Genuine Builders (10%)

This final group consists of the true visionaries—the genuine “Chads” dedicated to building the “Future of France” (or whatever their vision may be). They embody:

Brilliant Minds: Not just selling dreams, these individuals are focused on creating revenue-generating businesses that add real value.
Persistence: While they may struggle to gain traction initially, they remain steadfast, refusing to launch tokens solely for exit liquidity.
Long-Term Commitment: They’re here for the long haul, grounded in reality and willing to call it like they see it, advocating for sustainable growth in the industry.

In a nutshell, these three groups illustrate the spectrum of attitudes in the crypto space—from the impulsive degens to the savvy schemers, and finally to the genuine builders who might just be the ones to lead us into a brighter future.

L1/L2 & INFRA

The ETH Identity Crisis: Ethereum is currently having an identity crisis—think of it as a midlife crisis where it’s trying to buy a sports car while everyone else is opting for electric vehicles. With much of the attention (and development) now gravitating towards Solana and select EVM Layer 2s, many users are throwing shade at ETH. At the end of the day, price matters more than block size matters. I keep asking myself, are the ETH thought leaders too comfortable in their mansions to engage with the on ground developer community? Why can’t they be Solana? Is Vitalik the right Messiah?
Solana: The Clear Front-Runner: In my view, Solana is strutting down the runway like it just won "Best in Show." I’ve been loud and proud about my support for Solana on our Telegram channel and in various newsletters at Hashtalk. Following the Breakpoint event, the buzz around Solana's ecosystem is even more electric. They’re not just talking the talk; they’re shipping products faster than a pizza delivery on game night. Look at Firedancer. The Solana community is very organised, especially when compared to the chaotic circus that is ETHGlobal events. Solana’s single-chain focus and unified community give them a leg up—focus, my friends, is key! For detailed Solana breakdown, subscribe to 5-Min Macro and Crypto or 52 Trades in 52 Weeks
TON: Ride-Hailing with TADA and TON Crypto Payments was a massive hit at Token 2049. Everyone and their mother was using it and passing on TON and TADA referral codes. What a brilliant marketing campaign by both. TON is the next clear runner for L1 spot with its in-house 800 million users and a potential to really create mass adoption. I am bullish.
VC Interest & Funding the next SOL Killer: Venture capital continues to flow toward the next potential Ethereum or Solana killer. Mathematically, it’s a no-brainer: if you can find a project that delivers a 1000X return over the next few years, backing it is like finding a golden ticket in your chocolate bar. There are over 10 L1’s with hardly any activity and still trading between $1-10 bn FDV. That itself is a massive return for any VC. It work’s till it doesn’t. So fund it, till it doesn’t.
Gen Z Layer 1’s Flavour of the Season: Projects like Monad and Berachain are the latest hot topics, while SUI and Base are also on the radar. In contrast, older chains like Aptos, SEI, and TIA (the Millennial L1’s) are losing steam, and the Boomer chains like Polygon, Algorand, and Cosmos are fading from the spotlight faster than your New Year’s resolutions. Sure, we’ll see occasional price spikes driven by market makers and new narratives—look at FTM and AVAX—but those are often as fleeting as a Snapchat story. Show me a standout DApp on any of these chains that has captured the spotlight like GMX or Hperliquid or Polymarket or Friend.tech, and I might reconsider.
Niche Chain Specialization: We’re witnessing a move toward chain-specific niches: Solana for memes / payments / trading, Ronin for GameFi, and Arbitrum for DeFi. This trend, coupled with chain abstraction and cross-chain solutions, is enhancing user experience and making interactions smoother.
Pivot to B2B infrastructure and service providers: Some OG Chains are offering CDKs, SDKs, rollups, and app chains. While this may keep their tokens relevant, it feels like a band-aid solution—great for living the yacht life, but not exactly sustainable for the ecosystem.

In summary, while Ethereum grapples with its identity crisis like a teenager unsure of their hairstyle, Solana is charging ahead, fostering innovation and community engagement. As we continue down this path, it’ll be fascinating to see how the dynamics evolve and which projects truly stand the test of time.

PROJECTS & FOUNDERS

The Grim Reality of Crypto Funding: Let’s face it: most projects are facing a slow, painful death in the crypto wilderness. Gone are the glory days when you could get a cash infusion just for throwing together a PowerPoint deck that dazzled like a disco ball. Now, it’s like trying to sell ice to an Eskimo—good luck!
The Funding Cycle: A Never-Ending Hamster Wheel: Funded projects aren’t faring much better. They’re caught in a hamster wheel, burning through VC money. Once the funding runs dry or gets perilously low, it’s time to either raise more cash or launch a token. If the token takes off, they might survive for another 2-3 years; if not, it’s back to the drawing board. Without new users or real revenue, the road to profitability is about as clear as a foggy night on a deserted road.
The Rise of New Projects: Older projects are like that once-popular toy no one wants to play with anymore. Why invest in something stale when shiny new options like SUI, Aptos, Berachain, and Monad are offering grants to attract activity? It’s the same old wine, just in a new bottle—and it’s probably not even vintage.
Ponzi Schemes 2.0: Then there are the Ponzi schemes, which seem to keep sprouting up like weeds after a rain. It reminds me of the Celsius and BlockFi era when lending spiraled out of control, leading to a spectacular crash. Now, we’re seeing a similar cycle of staking, restaking, and the good old “your token yields my token, and together we yield!”—but this time, on a 10X scale and across 10X more chains. Where does it end? Your guess is as good as mine!
The Tech Founder Dilemma: Most tech founders seem blissfully unaware that crypto is a different beast altogether. They often don’t realize that tokenomics, product-market fit, community building, and all those buzzwords are essential to success. It’s not just about having a great product; you need a massive network and a sprinkle of luck to make it work. Best of luck if you’re not in the right VC gang or part of the “KoL mafia.”

In short, crypto is a game of strategy, and if you want to play, you better understand the rules—or you might end up as just another cautionary tale in the wild west of digital currencies.

“They are playing a game. They are playing at not playing a game. If I show them I see they are, I shall break the rules and they will punish me. I must play their game, of not seeing I see the game” - ― R.D. Laing

VENTURE FUNDS

A Year in the Life of Venture Capitalists: Navigating the Crypto Swamp:
Let’s face it—most VCs had a rough year: either they jumped in too early and watched their investments sink, or they invested this year, only to find that vesting schedules are 12-18 months away. In crypto time, that’s like waiting for a snail to finish a marathon!
The Smart Few: There are, however, a select few VCs who played the game with the cunning of a chess master. They helped list tokens at high fully diluted valuations (FDV), hedged their exposure, and then waited for the token to slide to rock bottom before swooping in to buy back at bargain prices. It’s like buying a fancy suit on clearance after the fashion show ends—just know when to hold and when to fold!
The Race for Revenue: Most VCs have finally wised up to the fact that there are projects capable of generating real revenue—think Friend Tech, Pump Fun, and Polymarket. Now, everyone and their grandma is racing to catch the next big wave. The challenge? Sorting the winners from the losers in a sea of competitors—over 100 alternatives to Pump Fun alone! Talk about a crowded room at a networking event where everyone’s trying to outshine each other!
The Liquidity Dilemma: Liquidity providers are becoming the darlings of the crypto world, as projects desperately need more total value locked (TVL) and capital to successfully launch their tokens. Looking back, it’s hard to ignore that most liquid funds underperformed Bitcoin this year—unless they had a knack for trading memecoins or crypto equities.
Memecoins are inaccessible: Regulated funds cannot get exposure to meme coins and unfortunately it has all been about memecoins this year.
LP’s interest is starting to rise, but they are all waiting for drama to unfold first. I’ve been talking to Asian wealth mangers and family offices. Post ETF - there is interest but they need trusted parties to handle their money and every now and then they get some horrid news / hack / scam and are taken back

In summary, while the landscape is rocky and fraught with challenges, those who navigate with conviction might just find a path to success amidst this crypto chaos.

NARRATIVES

AI Projects stood out with largest mindshare. Everyone seems to be building a decentralised computing network. Just like everyone is building a better TPS L1/L2. But I am very positive on the junction of AI & Crypto. Looking forward to talk to and guide founders in this category. Do reach out guys.
Most asked question - what do you think is the next narrative? Everyone wants to build or invest in next short term narrative.

Asia is leading crypto from front with as many devs, founders and VC's as in the west. Regs are much clearer in Singapore / Dubai / HK vs west and everyone I spoke wanted access to Asia. Population is younger, hungrier and adoption is much higher. If you want strategic help or distribution in Asia, do reach out. That is my strength.

Perps Narrative back with Hyperliquid: Post GMX, there hasn’t been any love to any perp DEX’s except HyperLiquid. Everyone is just waiting for their launch and some are claiming the launch could be at $100 bn FDV. That might set the tone for other innovative perp platforms to launch and do well.
RWA is another category that is of interest to us and entire industry it seems. Helium and Solana seem to be leading this race for now. Helium with its expanded home wifi signals is now working with the phone companies to allow its signals and share Helium’s coverage. Simply amazing real world use case with over 750K subscribers now.
You cannot kill Memcoin mania - because we are degens by default. Meme coins have been muted lately but there are here to stay. Every dip in major memes like WIF, POPCAT, BONK, PEPE, MEW, GIGA, SUN, MOTHER is a buy IMO. We are also investing in infra related to memecoins that has potential to make real revenue and weight a lot of deals there.
Chain Abstraction is very exciting as an infra play. But too many players and too many booths at Token 2049. I am yet to see a clear winner but use case is clear to me - multi chain transactions for users without any need to know that you are on a blockchain. I am very hung ho on simple chain abstraction infrastructure for devs. Reach out guys.
Bitcoin Ecosystem seems to be slowing down. While there was a lot of activity and buzz, but not enough mindshare as last year. There is still confusion around the entire ecosystem with real use cases and user experience far away.
Staking and restaking is losing steam as too many derivatives popping up on too many chains creating fragmentation and risk for entire ecosystem. I am not bullish. Poster child of staking LIDO seems to be cursed and people are starting to move on. I am not very hopeful here on this entire staking / restarting regime but keeping an open mind if I see anything interesting.
DEPIN - Here is all you want to know about DePin. Great piece by
knower

WINNERS & LOSERS

SOL is the clear winner - one chain to rule them all, with ETH as next and TON as close potential as explained above.
TON & SUI seem to have the highest mindshare among all L1’s right now with a potential 800 million in-house audience ready to be tapped. My money is on TON, whereas I SUI is just temporary IMO like all other Millennial chains before it. SUI is getting close to its $25bn FDV ceiling and that is that IMO. If you are building on TON, find me and reach out. I am weighing several exciting apps and mini apps on TON right now.
TAO / Bitrensor as the most talked about project and one of my favs in AI. A clear winner in its category. Render is another one I like.
Binance could melt faces when CZ comes out. But BSC needs to produce memes like Justin and not list the wrong “Neiro’’
$Mother was all the buzz on memecoins and I believe Izzy has been outstanding the way she has been pushing it. I have not seen any celebrity even close really working her ass out literally.

Hyperliquid is crushing it. Slick UX and quickly becoming the go-to exchange for many. Opinions are split—some love it, some hate it. Traders are quite transparent: some are sitting on huge bags of points, betting big on the token launch. Hard to predict how it will initially perform, but one to watch closely!
Liquidity for new launches I going to be an issue: There are over 40 brilliant projects launching in Q4 and over 100 others waiting on the sidelines. That is over $20 bn new FDV we are talking. Who is going to buy them? And if people are going to buy Monad & Berachain likes, they must be selling the Millennial and Boomer L1’s. I think there is not enough liquidity for that. and many projects and their communities are going to get burned.
GameFi is still not catching steam: People did not seem excited about GameFi. But I think GameFi will resurge at some point. We are long some projects from last year. It has done well for us but no new investments in GameFi this year. I like Ronin here.

If you are founder building in Web3, or a project that wants strategic help / growth in Asia, happy to brainstorm.

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